By Tejas Navale
Pune, November 22, 2024: As the countdown begins for the Maharashtra Assembly election results to be declared tomorrow, November 23, all eyes are on the intense battles unfolding across Pune district. As all parties have the tight timeline of November 26 to form the government, meanwhile, all the political parties have begun their preparations and started co-ordinating with all their candidates and a few independent candidates.
As the exit polls announced by various surveys after the voting are showing a close contest in the state between Mahayuti and the Mahavikas Aghadi, let’s take a closer look at the expected outcomes in Pune’s constituencies, based on public sentiment and media analysis.
Pune City: A Test of Loyalty and Development
Pune city’s eight constituencies are a political microcosm of the state. In Kasba, the BJP is banking on increased voter turnout and its party stronghold in the constituency to reclaim its bastion after losing it in the 2023 bypolls. Increased voter turnout and a shift in sentiments among disenchanted BJP supporters from 2023 could tip the scales in Rasane’s favour over Congress’ Ravindra Dhangekar.
In Shivajinagar and Parvati, Congress’ internal rebellion threatens to dent the Mahavikas Aghadi’s prospects, giving the BJP a slight edge. Chandrakant Dada Patil, buoyed by development work and strong party backing, is poised to retain Kothrud. Meanwhile, Congress’ Ramesh Bagwe appears to have an advantage in Pune Cantonment, where anti-incumbency against the BJP’s Sunil Kamble is expected to play a significant role.
In Vadgaon Sheri and Hadapsar, personal influence and sympathy for Sharad Pawar are expected to bolster NCP (SP) candidates Bapusaheb Pathare and Prashant Jagtap, respectively. In Khadakwasla, a three-way contest between NCP (SP)’s Sachin Dodke, BJP’s Bhimrao Tapkir, and MNS’ Mayuresh Wanjale could hinge on how many votes Wanjale manages to secure.
Pimpri-Chinchwad: Sympathies and Strongholds
In Pimpri-Chinchwad’s three constituencies, NCP (SP)’s Sulakshana Shilwant-Dhar is likely to benefit from Sharad Pawar’s support and low voter turnout in the constituencies. In Chinchwad, BJP’s Shankar Jagtap is banking on his family’s strong influence to fend off a strong challenge from the NCP (SP) candidate Rahul Kalate. However, in Bhosari, NCP (SP)’s Ajit Gavhane has emerged as a formidable contender against the BJP’s Mahesh Landage, making it a seat to watch.
Pune Rural: Sharad Pawar Factor Looms Large
In rural constituencies, Maval has drawn attention as an independent candidate; Bapu Bhegade, backed by the BJP rebel group and Mahavikas Aghadi, poses a strong challenge to NCP’s Sunil Shelke. Junnar sees a tough fight between NCP (SP)’s Satyasheel Sherkar and NCP’s Atul Benke, with Benke’s personal clout giving him a slight edge in a straight fight.
Ambegaon has become a prestige battle as Sharad Pawar has personally appealed to voters to unseat his long-time associate, Dilip Walse-Patil. Despite Walse-Patil’s strength, Pawar’s influence might sway the electorate in favour of NCP (SP)’s Devdatta Nikam.
In Shirur, sitting MLA Ashok Pawar looks set to retain his seat with the support of MP Amol Kolhe. Similarly, Khed-Alandi and Bhor are likely to favour incumbents Dilip Mohite-Patil and Sangram Thopte, given their strongholds.
In Purandar, a friendly fight within the Mahayuti alliance could split votes, potentially benefiting Congress’ Sangram Jagtap. In Daund and Indapur, Sharad Pawar’s aggressive campaign for NCP (SP) candidates Ramesh Thorat and Harshavardhan Patil might put BJP incumbents Rahul Kul and Datta Bharne in jeopardy.
Baramati: The Crown Jewel
Now, the final and most-awaited constituency in Pune and perhaps all of Maharashtra is Baramati, where the Pawar family rivalry once again takes centre stage. While the young face of Yugendra Pawar and the sympathy of Sharad Pawar may have created significant momentum for the NCP (SP), Ajit Pawar has mounted an equally aggressive campaign based on his experience and the support of his activists, which he had built over his career of 30+ years. Therefore, all the surveys are putting their eggs in Ajit Pawar’s basket, though with voter margins expecting minimum. However, it is really tricky to guess anything about Baramati before the result, as Baramati had already delivered a surprising result in Lok Sabha.
